Noise: a flaw in human judgment

Introduction : Two kinds of error

Part I. Finding noise: Crime and noisy punishment ; A noisy system ; Singular decisions

Part II. Your mind is a measuring instrument: Matters of judgment ; Measuring error ; The analysis of noise ; Occasion noise ; How groups amplify noise

Part III. Noise in predictive judgment: Judgments and models ; Noiseless rules ; Objective ignorance ; The valley of the normal

Part IV. How noise happens: Heuristics, biases, and noise ; The matching operation ; Scale ; Patterns ; The sources of noise

Part V. Improving judgments: Better judges for better judgments ; Debiasing and decision hygiene ; Sequencing information in forensic science ; Selection and aggregation in forecasting ; Guidelines in medicine ; Defining the scale in performance ratings ; Structure in hiring ; The mediating assessments protocol

Part VI. Optimal noise: The costs of noise reduction ; Dignity ; Rules or standards?

Review and conclusion: Taking noise seriously

Epilogue: A less noisy world

Appendix A: How to conduct a noise audit

Appendix B: A checklist for a decision observer

Appendix C: Correcting predictions.